Keywords: horse racing, race ratings, national hunt, jumping, statistics, data, Bayes' theorem, racing systems, The Punter's Revenge
Race Ratings for National
Hunt Horse Racing
HOOF race ratings are designed for a statistics-grounded
value approach to National Hunt horse racing in the UK. Unlike conventional
race ratings, they offer the backer an authoritative guide to both form
and
value. The program which generates the ratings uses Bayes' theorem to calculate
each horse's chance of winning. The resulting figures are then recalculated
to give an edge in the backer's favour. Hence the acronym: Horserace Optimum
Odds Forecast.
Free National Hunt Race Ratings
Data Resources - the HOOF Data Archive
Use the free downloadable archive data
in spreadsheet-friendly text format to devise your own HOOF National Hunt
race ratings systems.
Hoof National
Hunt Race Ratings Data Archive 2004-06
Data from part of the 2004-05 season (October-December),
and all of the 2005-06 season (November-April)
Hoof National
Hunt Race Ratings Data Archive 2006-07
Data from all of the 2006-07 season (November-April)
For reasons of space, archive material for the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons will be published in the 'Files' section of the HOOF discussion forum.
THE PUNTER'S REVENGE ONLINE
Selected chapters from the old classic
'The Punter's Revenge'', which I co-authored in 1987, are now available
as an online resource in PDF for those interested in statistical approaches
to horse racing. The book is a trifle dated in places, but the statistical
principles and methods that Richard Forsyth and I advocated all those years
ago, still hold. For technical reasons, the PDF version is not available
on this site, but can be accessed by joining the HOOF
discussion forum.
The 2009-10 jumping season will see the return of the ratings, and will run from 1st November to 30th April inclusive.
ALL ABOUT HOOF NATIONAL HUNT RACE RATINGS
Introduction
to the Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast
A fuller account of the theory and practice
behind the ratings.
GETTING IN TOUCH
I will not put my email address up on
a web page, since this simply ecourages identity theft. If you wish
to contact me, please join the HOOF
discussion forum and contact me from there.
Subscription details
How to access the ratings.
Review 2006-07
Review of the 2006-07 season.
Review 2008-09
Review of the 2008-09 season.
Links
Links to related horse racing sites.