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Keywords: horse racing, race ratings, national hunt, jumping, statistics, data, Bayes' theorem, racing systems, The Punter's Revenge

Race Ratings for National Hunt Horse Racing
HOOF race ratings are designed for a statistics-grounded value approach to National Hunt horse racing in the UK. Unlike conventional race ratings, they offer the backer an authoritative guide to both form and value. The program which generates the ratings uses Bayes' theorem to calculate each horse's chance of winning. The resulting figures are then recalculated to give an edge in the backer's favour. Hence the acronym: Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast.
 

LATEST RESULTS - BIG PRICED WINNERS IN FEBRUARY-MARCH

DATE       HORSE            RATED        BETFAIR*     SP

05 Feb     Lady Samantha    Second-top    10/1        12/1
20 Feb     Le Beau Bai      Second-top    11/1        10/1
21 Feb     Nacarat          Top           10/1        10/1
           Political Paddy  Second-top    12/1         9/1
23 Feb     Bugsy's Boy      Second-top    20/1        16/1
24 Feb     Eborarry         Top           11/1        11/1
26 Feb     March'd D'Argent Second-top    10/1        11/1
28 Feb     Knockara Beau    Top           10/1         6/1

08 Mar     Outlaw Tom       Second-top    15/1        12/1
10 Mar     Karmadice        Top           11/1         8/1
11 Mar     Tricky Trickster Second-top    16/1        11/1
17 Mar     Nothing's Easy   Second-top    47/1        16/1
29 Mar     Or De Gruchy     Top           10/1        15/2
20 Mar     Pontop           Second-top    14/1        15/2

*Betfair prices quoted were those obtained by me on the day.

Many other value bets at shorter prices from the top two.

Free National Hunt Race Ratings Data Resources - the HOOF Data Archive
Use the free downloadable archive data in spreadsheet-friendly text format to devise your own HOOF National Hunt race ratings systems.

Hoof National Hunt Race Ratings Data Archive 2004-06
Data from part of the 2004-05 season (October-December), and all of the 2005-06 season (November-April)

Hoof National Hunt Race Ratings Data Archive 2006-07
Data from all of the 2006-07 season (November-April)

Data files from earlier seasons are available on application.

THE PUNTER'S REVENGE ONLINE
Selected chapters from the old classic 'The Punter's Revenge' which I co-authored in 1987 are now available as an online resource in PDF for those interested in statistical approaches to horse racing.  The book is a trifle dated in places, but the statistical principles and methods which Richard Forsyth and I advocated all those years ago, still hold.  For technical reasons, the PDF version is not available on this site, but can be accessed by joining the HOOF discussion forum.

The 2008-09 jumping season will see the return of the ratings, and will run from 1st November to 30th April inclusive.

ALL ABOUT HOOF NATIONAL HUNT RACE RATINGS
Introduction to the Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast
A fuller account of the theory and practice behind the ratings.

GETTING IN TOUCH
I will not put my email address up on a web page, since this simply ecourages identity theft.  If you wish to contact me, please join the HOOF discussion forum and contact me from there.

Subscription details
How to access the ratings.

Join the HOOF forum
Join the forum, get a feel for how HOOF subscribers operate, and access free resources.

Review 2006-07
Review of the 2006-07 season.

Links
Links to related horse racing sites.

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